Type A positive

Friday, October 2, 2009

Jason Varitek and Juan Cruz found themselves boxed into a maze of baseball rules and regulations last winter, walled in by circumstance. But they probably won't be the last players to face this kind of quandary if the predictions of some executives and player representatives hold true.

To review, here's what happened with Varitek and Cruz: Both were classified as Type A free agents and both were offered arbitration by their teams, the Red Sox and Diamondbacks respectively. This meant that if either signed with another team, that team would have to forfeit a top draft pick as compensation.

The fact that they had draft picks tied to them dragged down their market value like a 100-pound cement block, sabotaging a lot of interest that other teams might have had in both of them. In short, each was good enough to be classified as a Type A player, but not so good that a team was ready to part with a draft pick to sign him. From the perspective of the player, it's far, far better to be classified as a Type B free agent, because the team that signs you doesn't have to give up its draft pick in compensation.

As of today, there are a little more than two dozen prospective free agents projected to be a Type A. An informal panel of six executives and player representatives was polled and asked to predict who among those likely Type A free agents would be offered arbitration, and who will be affected as Varitek and Cruz were last winter; the consensus is that Mark DeRosa, Billy Wagner and Mike Gonzalez might be the players hurt by their Type A status. Here are all the players currently projected to be Type A free agents, and the future that the panel forecast for them; the list includes Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Mike Gonzalez, Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Bengie Molina, Placido Polanco, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Randy Wolf, and many more:


For a lot more Type A free agent talk, the final results of Yankee Stadium, and to get in on Buster's new mailbag, and much more, you must be an ESPN Insider.



Bobby Abreu, Angels -- About $6 million in base salary and incentives. It's unanimous: All asked expect that the Angels will offer arbitration, and probably work out a multi-year deal. "He's transformed their offense, and [Mike Scioscia] loves him," said one AL executive. "They'll look at him as a bargain."


Bengie Molina, Giants -- $6 million salary. Three of six predict that the Giants will offer him arbitration. "I think the Giants can be a little crazy on these things, like the Tigers are," said an executive, "but my gut is that the Giants will fear that he will accept, when they are clearly going with [Buster] Posey in the future." Said another executive: "They like [Molina]; he's their cleanup hitter, after all. The only reason they wouldn't do it would be if they absolutely thought Posey was ready to take over at the start of the season. And the value of the draft picks, if you get them, is so high that it's worth the risk to offer him arbitration." The Giants and Molina need each other, Ray Ratto writes today.


Jason Bay, Red Sox -- $7.5 million salary. He is expected to be among the most sought-after free agents, along with Matt Holliday, and it was unanimous that the Red Sox will offer him arbitration.

Freddy Sanchez, Giants -- $6.1 million salary. Five of six predicted the Giants won't offer him arbitration. Said the one who voted "yes": "It wouldn't surprise me to see them work out a multi-year deal. They obviously really like the guy."

Rafael Betancourt, Rockies -- Earning $3.35 million this season with a $5.4 million club option for 2010. Five of six expect that Betancourt won't be offered arbitration. Said the executive who guessed that the Rockies would offer arbitration: "If they do, it would definitely affect his market value."


Orlando Cabrera, Twins -- $4.25 million salary. Within his contract is language that prevents Minnesota from offering him arbitration, so he will be free and clear of the Type A problem.


Johnny Damon, Yankees -- He is making $13 million in salary. All who were asked expect the Yankees to offer him arbitration -- and they think it'll affect Damon's market value. "They'd love to have him back on a one-year deal," said an AL GM. "If he accepts, they'll live with the $13-15 million salary."


Mark DeRosa, Cardinals -- $5.5 million salary. Six of six predict the Cardinals will offer him arbitration. "Easy call for the Cardinals," said one executive. "If he were to accept, you'd feel good about having him on a one-year deal for $6 million or $7 million, on a short-term obligation." Said another official: "I think it would significantly hurt his market, because he's going to be 35 years old and I don't think teams will be willing to give up [the salary] and the draft picks. I think that would eliminate a lot of interest in him." An AL GM disagrees: "He'll rise above that, because he's too versatile, too valuable. Somebody would give up the draft pick to sign him."


Octavio Dotel, White Sox -- $6 million salary in 2009. Five of six expect that the White Sox will not offer him arbitration.


Jermaine Dye, White Sox -- He made $11.5 million in salary and has a $12 million option for next year. Nobody asked expects Dye to be offered arbitration. Said one GM: "They locked that in when they claimed Alex Rios [on waivers]."


Mike Gonzalez, Braves -- $3.45 million salary. Four of six predict the Braves will offer Gonzalez arbitration. "A lot of it depends on what the Braves think his health is," said a GM. "If they think he's healthy, why not? He's pitched pretty well for them, hasn't he?" Gonzalez has a 2.42 ERA, with 90 strikeouts and 33 walks in 79 games. "The worst-case scenario would be that you would get a pretty productive pitcher for $5 million or $6 million through arbitration," said one official. "And that's probably what would happen, because given his injury history, it's hard to see a lot of teams being interested in signing him to a long-term deal and giving up the draft picks."


John Grabow, Cubs -- $2.3 million salary. Four of six predicted that the Cubs will not offer him arbitration. Said one executive: "They should just offer it to him, because they could get back a decent left-hander on a one-year deal." An AL GM chimed in, "If they offered him arbitration, there's no chance another team would sign him. You're not going to give up a No. 1 pick for a middle reliever."


Kevin Gregg, Cubs -- $4.2 million salary. Six of six predicted that the Cubs will not offer him arbitration.


Vladimir Guerrero, Angels -- $15 million salary. Which means he could theoretically get $16 million to $17 million in arbitration. Five of six expect he won't be offered arbitration. One executive said he thinks the Angels will offer arbitration to all of their Type A free agents, "because they can afford to make a mistake. If he accepts it, they can just keep him for one year, and they get the draft pick if he goes elsewhere -- and that's an organization that is built on draft picks. They have a chance to get a bunch of draft picks this winter."


Rich Harden, Cubs -- $7 million salary. Four of six predict that the Cubs will not offer him arbitration. Said one executive: "I think [the Cubs] are tired of the uncertainty, and there is a fair chance he would accept if they offered it to him. They've got other things they need to do, and they wouldn't want to get locked into a $9 million to $10 million salary with him." Said an NL official: "He's got 'Red Sox' written all over him -- the Cubs won't sign him, and the Red Sox will bring him on board for a decent base salary and some incentives."


LaTroy Hawkins, Astros -- $3.5 million in salary. Four of six predicted that the Astros will offer him arbitration. Said one official: "They should offer it to both (Hawkins) and Jose Valverde, but I don't know if they will." Said a player representative: "If they offered arbitration to him, that would really hurt his market, a lot like it did with Cruz. Nobody is going to surrender a draft pick for an older reliever."


Trevor Hoffman, Brewers -- About $7 million in salary and performance bonuses. Six of six predicted that Milwaukee will offer him arbitration. "They want him back, and if you want him back, that's probably what you have to do," said one official.


Matt Holliday, Cardinals -- $13.5 million salary. Six of six expect the Cardinals will offer him arbitration, and that this will have no bearing on the offers he receives. "He re-established his value with that second half," said one NL official. "Easy call."


Orlando Hudson, Dodgers -- About $8 million in salary and performance bonuses. Three of six predict the Dodgers will not offer him salary arbitration; if they do, our board of experts predicts, it would hurt Hudson's negotiating position in free agency. "The Dodgers have been so cost-conscious, so based on how they've done business, I don't think they'll offer arbitration," said an AL GM. "Sixty-five percent of the organizations would consider that a no-brainer to offer arbitration, but that's not what we've seen out of this front office." Said an AL executive: "No, because they'd fear that Hudson would take it -- and I think that they would." Another official countered: "You don't have huge exposure [financially] if you offer it to him, because he's still a pretty good player, and you could wind up with some draft picks."


John Lackey, Angels -- $9 million salary. Six of six expect he will be offered arbitration, and that it will not have any impact on his free agent market. Lackey is expected to be the premier free agent pitcher this winter.


Felipe Lopez, Brewers -- $3.5 million salary. Five of six predict the Brewers will not offer him arbitration. Countered the executive with the one "yes" vote: "He's played pretty well for them, and given his salary, you wouldn't feel badly if he won an arbitration award of $5 million to $6 million." Said an executive who voted "no": "If they do offer him arbitration, I can't see another team signing him because of the availability of a lot of second basemen. But I don't think they will, because they've got too many other financial concerns, with guys moving up the salary scale, and they've got to set aside money to add pitching."




Darren Oliver, Angels -- $3.665 million salary in 2009. Four of six expect he will be offered arbitration. Said one: "They did it last winter, he accepted, and it worked out for everybody. I don't know why they wouldn't take the same approach."


Andy Pettitte, Yankees -- He will earn about $10.5 million in salary, roster bonuses and performances bonuses this season. Three predict that he will be offered arbitration, three say no. "They weren't willing to offer this to him last year, so why would they this year?" asked one official rhetorically. Here's one reason the Yankees likely will: He has thrown the ball better this season, and is 14-7 with a 4.11 ERA.


Placido Polanco, Tigers ($4.6 million salary). Three of six expect that the Tigers will offer him arbitration. Said one official who does not think the Tigers will give him arbitration: "There are so many second baseman out there, and they've already made the decision to keep Magglio Ordonez at $18 million. They're going to have to bite the bullet some place." Said one executive who thinks the Tigers will offer arbitration: "He's a valuable player for them, and they won't feel bad about having him at $6 million or $7 million for one year. If they do offer him arbitration, it will kill his market value."


Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays -- $1.1 million salary in 2009. Six of six say Toronto will offer arbitration, and be willing to run the risk that Scutaro wins an arbitration award. "A no-brainer," said one executive. "He's a shortstop, and that's a premium position. And he won't accept." Said another executive: "Some team will be willing to give him a two-year or three-year deal and give up the draft pick, because he's a shortstop." One AL official does believe Scutaro's market will be impacted by his Type A status. "He's a nice player, but consider where he's coming from. Remember, if you're giving up a pick, you're giving up a chance to draft a stud. Is Scutaro that kind of player? I don't think he is."


Rafael Soriano, Braves -- $6.1 million salary. Four of six predicted that the Braves will not offer him arbitration. Said an AL GM: "It will go back to whether they think there are health issues. But if they offer it, they would have to know there's a pretty good chance he'll accept it."


Miguel Tejada, Astros -- $13 million salary. Six of six predicted the Astros will not offer him arbitration.


Jose Valverde, Astros -- $8 million salary. Four of six predicted that the Astros will not offer him arbitration. "They won't devote that much money to paying for a closer," said one official. Another countered: "He'd probably get $10 million or $11 million in arbitration, and so the worst-case scenario would be that you have to eat a little more money than you expected, and the best-case scenario is that you would get draft picks." Said an AL GM: "If they did offer him arbitration, it would hurt him on the market, because there are a lot of bullpen alternatives where you wouldn't have to give up the draft pick."


Billy Wagner, Red Sox -- $10.5 million salary. Six of six predicted that Boston will offer arbitration. And five of six of those polled believe this will greatly impact Wagner's market value. "He's an older guy coming off surgery," said one person polled, "and there are going to be a lot of closers available this winter. You'd rather go after a guy who doesn't cost you a draft pick." Said another executive: "This is going to be really interesting to watch. If I were his agent [Bean Stringfellow], I'd be going to the Red Sox early on and trying to unwind this and see what you can do."


Randy Wolf, Dodgers -- $8 million in salary and incentives. Six of six predicted that the Dodgers will offer him arbitration, and some believe this will have an impact on his market. Others disagree. "He's 33 years old, a great team guy, and he showed this year that he can still pitch," said one GM. "Somebody would probably give up a draft pick for him. But if I had to guess, I think he'll just re-sign with the Dodgers."